What’s expected from Canadian players at the Australian Open?

The Australian Open 2024 gets underway on Sunday 14 January as all eyes in the tennis world turn to Melbourne. The weather has not been kind to players during the qualifying tournament so even though it is the height of summer down under, the tournament could do with some help to go without a hitch.

It is proud of its place in the calendar as the first Grand Slam of the year and a great way to beat those January blues. Novak Djokovic is the defending men’s champion, winning his 10th title in 2023, the most title wins in the history of the tournament. The women’s champion was Aryna Sabalenka who is the number 2 seed in the women’s draw in 2024. 

There will be some Canadian representation in the tournament but according to the betting sites, there is very little chance that we will see a winner bringing the trophy back here. While that may be true, it won’t stop us from casting an eye over the tournament to predict how our representatives are going to get on.

There is only one place we can start and that is with the best men’s player that Canada has at present. 2023 is a year that he will want to forget, a campaign that was very disappointing by his high standards but he will be hoping that the turning of the year will help him back to his best. 

He is the number 27 seed in the men’s draw and that is only due to his 2023 season, ranked as high as number 6 in the world rankings at the end of 2022, he had slipped to 29 at the end of 2023, a disappointing fall over the course of a year.

This tournament has seen him get as far as the quarter-final stage in 2022 before losing in five sets to Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev would make his second straight Australian Open final, falling to Rafael Nadal in the decider in five sets.

He also made the quarter-final stage at Wimbledon in 2021 and the semis at the US Open in the same year. When you consider just how early he came onto the scene as a top-class player, it is easy to forget that he is still only 23 years old. 

Given his age, he should not be at the peak of his career for another couple of years which gives plenty of hope that he is going to be capable of winning one of these grand slam events one day. 

It has to be said that it is rather unlikely that it is going to be the 2024 Australian Open. The form that he showed in 2023 was a long way below his personal best so it would just be nice to see him get through a few rounds and give himself a bit of confidence here. 

Things are tougher as a lower seed, his opening match will be against Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is currently rated 94th in the world ranking but was as high as number 3 in 2020. That year he won the US Open and made the final here in Australia. It is not the sort of draw that Auger-Aliassime would have been hoping for.

Even if he manages to get through the first couple of rounds, he would be drawn to take on Medvedev again in the Australian Open, this time in the third round. Even if he was playing at his peak, that might be as far as he can be expected to go.

Winner of the boys’ doubles at the 2015 US Open when partnered with Auger-Aliassime, he has not been able to reach the same level as his former partner has. He is currently only ranked 116th in the world but he was as high as number 10 back in 2020.

He has one title to his credit so far on the ATP tour, winning the 2019 Stockholm Open. His record in the grand slam events has seen him make a Wimbledon semi-final in 2021 and a US Open quarter-final back in 2020.

The quarter-final stage is the best that he has managed in Australia, coming in 2022, only making it as far as the third round last year. He will kick off his 2024 Australian Open campaign with a match against one of those to make it through the qualifying tournament.

While we don’t know who Shapovalov’s first-round opponent will be, we can make an educated guess that it will be the number nine seed Hubert Hurkacz who he will take on in the second round. Hurkacz is ranked number nine in the world, the highest ranking that he has achieved in his career so that will be a serious test so early in the tournament for Shapovalov.

Missing two years from 2021 to 2023 has seen Raonic’s world ranking slip to 318th but that is very much down to a seemingly endless string of injuries in the preceding years. At 33 years of age, he is considerably older than either of the other main Canadian players but he has lots of experience to fall back on.

Five times he has made the quarter-final stage of the Australian Open so he has a great pedigree in this tournament. In 2016 he made it to the semi-finals here, the same year that he made it to the Wimbledon final.

An outstanding server, he is in the top 30 all-time in terms of prize money won which is quite an achievement given how much time he has lost to injuries. He has been unlucky in the draw for the first round of the 2024 Australian Open, taking on the number 10 seed, Alex de Minaur.

The fourth round has been as far as de Minaur has gone, in both 2022 and 2023. The Australian (even though he is from Sydney) will have the crowd behind him so Raonic is going to have to strike early to silence the crowd and take them out of the game.

One more match stands between Diallo and a place in the main draw at the time of writing. He will have to take on the Belgian player David Goffin in the final qualifying round, a match that is a difficult one for him on paper.

Diallo is only 22 years old and is ranked 130th in the world. That is as high as he has been, winning the 2023 Slovak Open on the Challenger Tour which has helped his ranking get as high as this. His best days are still ahead of him and qualifying for his first-ever grand slam tournament would be quite some feather in his cap.

Goffin made the quarter-final stage of this event back in 2017, reaching the same stage at both the French Open and Wimbledon as well in his career. He was ranked 7th at one time, now ranked 107th. There is little between him and Diallo on the rankings but his experience compared to Diallo’s youth is going to be the battle for Diallo to overcome.

The number 32 seed in the women’s tournament is still only 21 years old. She was a finalist in the girls’ tournament in the Australian Open back in 2019 but it was the second round last year that has been her best effort so far when taking on the main tour players.

She already has three titles on the tour, reaching as high as 13 in the rankings back in August 2022. At present, she is down to 36 but she has shown at a young age that she is going to be capable of making an impact on the big days in time.

In the opening round of the 2024 Australian Open, she will take on one of the players to come out of the qualifying tournament. The second round will see her either take on another qualifier or the American Alycia Parks who is ranked 82nd in the world.

There is plenty of hope then that Fernandez will make the third round but here she could take on the number 4 seed Coco Gauff. Gauff is only 19 so this could be a clash that is going to be seen at grand slam events for many years to come.

It was a shame that the final round of the qualifying tournament pitted Sebov and Marino together. One Canadian had to be knocked out but on the other hand, it guarantees another representative in the women’s singles tournament. 

At the time of writing, this match is yet to take place so we do not know who will be the second Canadian in the women’s singles. It will be great to see another player in there to go along with Fernandez to at least give someone else to cheer.

Sebov was a first-round casualty in the Australian Open last year, the first time that she had made it into a grand slam proper. Ranked 141 in the world, she is five positions below her very best-ever ranking.

Rebecca Marino is by far the more experienced player at the age of 33. Second-round appearances in 2011 and 2021 are as far as she has gone in the Australian Open, making the third round in both the French and US Open in the past.

A current ranking of 166 is a long way below her peak of 38 back in 2011. She has 13 tournament wins on the ITF tour so has the back class that Sebov doesn’t which is going to make this a fascinating matchup to see who gets the slot in the opening round.

There is nowhere else to start but with the 10-time winner Novak Djokovic. The number one seed once more in 2024, he is once more the man that they all have to beat. The number two seed at the bottom end of the draw is the Spanish player Carlos Alcaraz. 

Just 20 years old, he has already won both Wimbledon and the US Open. This has been his weakest tournament so far, the third round as far as he has gone. It would be a surprise if he is not able to make a step forward on that level in 2024.

The reigning champion Aryna Sabalenka is the number two seed in the 2024 Australian Open. She also made the final of the US Open last year and the semis in both the French Open and Wimbledon. She will have plenty of supporters in a bid to double up this year and looks to have strong claims to the prize.

The top seed is Iwa Swiatek, a triple winner of the French Open as well as a former US Open champion. She has only made it as far as the semi-final stage at the Australian Open in the past, that in 2022. A fourth-round casualty last year, this surface just doesn’t seem to suit her quite as well as clay. 28-2 all-time in the French Open, those looking to have a bet on her would do well to wait for the second grand slam of the year before parting with their cash.

Sadly, it is hard to see any success at the Australian Open for the Canadian participants. The third round looks like it is going to be as far as any of the players go which is a little disappointing but they have not been all that lucky when it comes to the draw. 

The good thing is that there is a great future to look forward to in both men’s and women’s tennis given how young so many of these Canadian players are. While 2024 does not look like the year, those to come could easily see much better results.